American chaos theory

The flapping of a butterfly's wing at one end of the world can lead to a tsunami at the other. Such a straightforward image is usually interpreted by the theory of chaos, leaving with the intermediate links of the chain. And in our case, the internal political struggle in the United States in 2020 will lead to a war between Georgia and Russia. To understand how, it is necessary to consider the elements separating "A" and "B".

 

%25D0%2591%25D0%25B5%25D0%25B7%2B%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B0%25D0%25B7%25D0%25B2%25D0%25B0%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B8%25D1%258F%2B%25283%2529.jpg

To begin with, let's return to the beginning of the millennium, namely in 2004, when Republican George W. Bush won the election in the United States, gaining 50.7% of the vote against 48.3% of the Democrat John Kerry. Then it was the Republican Party that took a tougher stance towards Russia, and this factor among American voters has long been one of the key criteria in choosing a president. Everything is logical here, because relations between Washington and Moscow have been very tense for decades. And this factor is now actively exploited in the struggle for power in the United States.

Pay attention to what happened in Georgia against the backdrop of the American presidential race. A year before the US election, Tbilisi was swept by a wave of protests that ended in the overthrow of Eduard Shevardnadze. And in his place came the leader of the Rose Revolution Mikhail Saakashvili. Having become president in January 2004, the following months, he was committed to escalating the situation in the Tskhinvali region. The troops gathered there, which eventually turned into military clashes. At the same time, the American media carefully covered what was happening with an anti-Russian bias, creating the corresponding mood in society. As a result, Bush won, and the Georgian conflict ended with the signing of a truce only 3 days after the end of the US presidential race.

It's funny that they decided to repeat the script against the backdrop of the next US election. August 2008 became a black page in the history of Georgia. The five-day war with Russia ended in a significant loss.

Let's get to the other side of the Atlantic. While Georgia was militarizing and escalating, the Republican John McCain narrowed the gap with Democrat Barack Obama, who was just advocating constructive relations with Russia, by about 10%. If Saakashvili could stretch the conflict in Georgia for several months, then Obama would never become the head of the White House.

Years later, as we see, the American Democrats and Republicans exchanged roles. Now the Democratic Party has taken a tough anti-Russian position. That's just the methods have not changed at all, because Georgia is again becoming a "boiling point". The first prerequisites for this appeared in June. Then the Georgian opposition, including the Unified National Movement of the disgraced Saakashvili, became more active because the Russian parliamentarian was seated in the chair of the speaker of the parliament. This was predictable, because he headed the Interparliamentary Assembly of Orthodoxy, therefore, one could prepare for the actions. The stake, as before, was made on the impulsiveness of the Russian government. Of course, Moscow refrained from extremely radical measures even after Putin and his parents were poured mud on Georgian TV. However, Russia still banned direct flights with Georgia at the height of the tourist season. In Tbilisi, losses are estimated at between 350 and 700 million dollars. Of course, this did not contribute to the friendship between Georgia and Russia, but official Tbilisi is still desperately trying to balance. This is extremely disadvantageous to structures that are interested in the escalation of tension. As a result, the opposition began a new wave of protests.

This time, power itself became its goal. Demonstrators demand early parliamentary elections. True, the intensity of the protests is very mixed, because their key task is to support anti-government sentiment right up to the elections themselves. They are scheduled for October 2020. The authorities so far refuse to make concessions, which, in fact, is not so bad for the beneficiaries of the campaign. As you know, the presidential election in the United States will be held on November 3, 2020. Thus, if forces extremely loyal to Washington can come to power in Georgia, then in a matter of days they will be able to provoke a local, but even a conflict with Russia. Already now provocations are arising in the Tskhinvali region. Crossing the point of no return is not so difficult, and for several days, separating the Georgian elections from the American, the conflict will definitely last. As a result, the alignment in the political arena of the United States will be a foregone conclusion, and the Democrats will be able to say: "We warned".

Unfortunately, such a scenario will hardly be favorable for Georgia. Moreover, it will entail a wider confrontation. Europe will certainly be drawn into it. New sanctions attacks will begin with all the ensuing consequences. This is unlikely to contribute to global stability. However, there is still a chance to rectify the situation. This chance is in the hands of the leader of the ruling Georgian party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, who has already promised to turn to the American establishment with an open letter. At the same time, he said that a number of NGOs funded from the United States are only concerned with harming relations between Tbilisi and Washington.

However, Ivanishvili wants to appeal to the American Congress and that’s is going to be a mistake. Obviously, US lawmakers are aware of who and for what purpose they sponsor. Another thing is if we turn to Donald Trump, who is already known for reducing financial flows to non-governmental organizations and even countries. Yes, Trump’s position cannot be called stable now, but for him this letter will become an advantageous lever of pressure on opponents. As a master of media exploitation, the head of the White House can easily make a good scandal out of this, forcing the Democrats to restrain his ardor

Le Club est l'espace de libre expression des abonnés de Mediapart. Ses contenus n'engagent pas la rédaction.