CRISIS OF THE LEFT AND REACTIONARY OFFENSIVE IN LATIN AMERICA
Since the beginning of the 21th Century, the Left won the elections in most Latin American countries, in a powerful wave of popular rejection of the disastrous neo-liberal policies of the previous rulers. One must however distinguish between two quite different sorts of Left governments: 1) Social-liberal coalitions, which do not break with the fundamental "Washington Consensus" but implement several progressive social measures. The basic principle of this sort of governments is to do everything that is possible to improve the situation of the poor, on the condition not to touch the privileges of the rich...The Left, or Center-Left governments of Brazil, Uruguay and Chile are the most obvious examples. 2) Anti-oligarchic, anti-neo-liberal and anti-imperialist governments, who set as their historical horizon "Socialism of the 21th Century". Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador belong to this category. Other Leftist governments, in Paraguay, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Argentina, seem to be somewhere in between, or on the margins, of these two types. Substantial gains were made by the popular layers in most of these countries, thanks to the social redistribution of the rent, particularly from oil and gas extraction (Venezuela and Bolivia). But none of these governments effectively confronted the basic structures of the capitalist system, and no real attempt was made towards a transition to socialism.. So far, socialist Cuba, with all it's shortcomings, remains the only such experience.
There were also no attempts to move beyond the dependency on fossil fuels, except for a short period, when the government of Raphael Corrêa in Ecuador decided to accept the Park Yasuni Project of the ecological and indigenous movements : to leave, in this forest area inhabited by peasant communities, the oil in the soil, but requiring from the rich countries of the North to pay half of its value as a compensation to the Ecuadorian people. Unfortunately, Correa finally gave up, and opened the Yasuni Park to the oil companies.
Since the beginning, there have been several attempts of the oligarchies to re-establish their traditional rule, by various sorts of coup d'état, with the blessings of US Imperialism, but in most cases - Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador - it failed, thanks to massive popular mobilization against them. However, in Honduras in 2009, Manuel Zelaya, the democratically elected President, who tried to implement some progressive measures, was overturned by a pseudo-legal procedure of the Supreme Court, with the support of the Army. Something similar happened in Paraguay with President Lugo, who was accused in 2012 of supporting the peasant movements and was deposed by the Senate. Authoritarian, right-wing governments replaced the progressive leaders in these two countries, with diplomatic support of US Imperialism.
In fact, the reactionary, conservative, oligarchic reaction against the Leftist governments never ceased during the last 15 years, but now it has achieved some very substantial victories. In Argentina, the Left Peronist experience of the Kirchner's government (Nestor, and, after his death, his wife Christina) came recently to an end with the election of the right-wing, pro-imperialist and neo-liberal candidate, Macri. And in Venezuela, the oligarchic opposition won the Parliamentary elections, thus seriously challenging the power of Chavez's successor, Nicolas Maduro. These defeats certainly have to do with the limits and contradictions of the processes of change in the two countries, but they also document the capacity of the reactionary bourgeois forces to manipulate, deceive and mislead significant sectors of the population, thanks to their quasi-monopoly of the mass media.
The most successful Leftist government in Latin America is probably the Bolivian one of Evo Morales, the indigenous peasant leader who defeated the neo-liberal oligarchic forces with massive popular support. But even here there has been disappointment with several decisions of the government, opposed by workers unions and indigenous movements. This probably explains why a majority refused, in a recent referendum, to grant Evo Morales the possibility of presenting himself for a third period as President - although this vote also expressed a more general rejection of excessive personal power.
In the present international conjuncture - end of the Cold War - it is not very likely to see the return of the murderous military dictatorships of the 1960's and 1980's - Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay - although this possibility cannot be entirely excluded.
Considering the economical and political weight of Brazil in Latin America, the present confrontation in this country will be decisive for the future of the continent in the next years. Dilma Roussef, the candidate of the "Worker's Party" (PT - Partido dos Trabalhadores) won the elections against a neo-liberal coalition in 2012, and was elected President, for the second time. Although she did a (moderately) leftist campaign, as soon as elected, she took a series of measures with a clear economic neo-liberal agenda. In a context of economical crisis, inflation and recession, more and more concessions were made to the banks, to financial capital, and to the big landowners, whose main leader was nominated Minister of Agriculture.
Using as a pretext the scandal of corruption connected to the state oil company Petrobras, the reactionary forces - neo-liberal right-wing parties, mass media, conservative magistrates - started a violent campaign for the impeachment of Dilma Roussef, with significant support among the middle-classes. Some of the more reactionary speakers have been calling the military to seize power again !
Several leaders of the PT, but also of the right-wing parties were involved in the corruption scandal, including the presidents of the Assembly and of the Senate, which are leading the campaign for the impeachment. Dilma Russef is in fact one of the few political leaders not involved in the scandal : the pseudo-legal motive for the impeachment would be some irregularities in the calculation of the state budget !
This is clearly an attempt at a "legal" coup d'etat. Popular Front, a broad coalition in defense of democracy and against the impeachment has been formed, including most progressive parties, from the PT to the far left PSOL (Party of Socialism and Freedom), the unions, the peasant and other social movements. This popular coalition opposes the impeachment but also criticizes the neo-liberal policies of the Dilma government, and calls for a radical change of orientation. The issue of the confrontation, which is taking place in the streets, is unpredictable, but it concerns the Left not only in Brazil...
Michael Löwy