Nuclear Iran: return on failure
At the end of three days of diplomatic suspense the result of the negotiations is not up to the expectations that were raised, it remains to explain the failure.
Unanimously the complaints turn to the French Minister Laurent Fabius accused of intransigence and firmness that Americans had not anymore in mind.
The question that comes immediately is why? More royalist than the king is the expression that keeps coming back. I have another one less pretty but also fair: Laurent Fabius closes like an oyster when it comes to Iran and I have experienced it in the Senate. He does not like Iran, which he does not know, does not trust the regime or its leaders.
I see three sets of explanations:
France ensured the defense of B. Netanyahu’s arguments; President Holland traveling in Israel in the coming days will have good news for him.
Second set of explanations, France is linked to the Gulf monarchies that fear the return of Iran, true regional power in the world of business and in particular in the closed market of oil and gas. The return of a large producer would call into question the prices and the small arrangements made at OPEP for their own benefit ,in addition of 1.5 billions contracts this year with KSA.
Third set of arguments, the French diplomacy ridiculed in the Syrian issue, took advantage of this platform to exist and remind that it is a great power capable, by itself, to be a grain of sand that can derail the whole.
In reality the result of this media-diplomatic circus and suspense on a planetary scale is simple: Laurent Fabius made the game of neoconservatives from both sides in Israel where they sing praise for a Tehran where moderates are weakened.
It is too early to know the amount of the bill that the international community will have to pay as a result of this failure. Once again Iran is back in the concert of nations and an agreement must be reached at the next meetings. Because its presence is essential in areas where the PAX AMERICANA failed: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Bahrain, and because the policy of the empty chair for this great country is intolerable and unrealistic.