If irreversible or without a U-turn, each and every drastic move by President Trump will have its consequences in the U.S.A.—steps confronted by counter-steps. One of them is signaled from California by a citizen named Marcus Evans from Fresno, who was given approval for his campaign, which could lead to a secession of California from the Union.
A green light was lit as California’s Secretary of State Shirley Weber announced that a measure introduced by Marcus Evans of Fresno must collect the signatures of at least 546,651 registered voters by July 22 this year.
According to the text, the state would be required to create a 20-member state commission to study California's viability as an independent country in 2027 and to publish a report the following year.
The measure would place the following question on an eventual November 2028 ballot: "Should California leave the United States and become a free and independent country?”
If approved, the proposal would declare a "vote of no confidence in the United States of America," an "expression of the will of the people of California" to become an independent country without changing the state’s government or its relationship with the U.S.
Campaigners, active for a long time, were already on the move again last autumn in the wake of the elections, apparently sensing tension. They wrote on their website: “Californians did not put their full faith and trust behind the Calexit option in 2016. Now it is 2024, and Trump is back, and he will come with even more tools and skill and supporters than last time. Do we need to wait until 2028 to realize that this is the trajectory of the country we share borders with?”
So, with the go-ahead from Weber, secession is officially on the table. In a nation struck by disorder and commotion, California is flirting with the idea of cutting ties and going solo. It may also trigger similar moves by Oregon and Washington State—all traditional blue states. One may soon notice some convulsions even in Colorado.
"Cascadia" refers to the Pacific Northwest region, including Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. Together, they contribute 10-12% of the total U.S. economy. (The total U.S. GDP in 2024 was estimated at around $28 trillion.)
Agrandissement : Illustration 1
But California alone is the key. It is the wealthiest and most populous state in the Union. As of 2024, California's GDP is approximately $4.080 trillion. This output places the Golden State as the world's fourth-largest economy, surpassing Japan and trailing only the United States as a whole, China, and Germany.
It is clear that a move toward secession would trigger a tremendous earthquake across the entire U.S.
There, secession faces substantial hurdles. The U.S. Constitution does not explicitly grant states the right to secede. The Supreme Court’s 1868 decision in Texas v. White stands as a challenge for any state considering doing so.
The ruling says that the United States is an "indestructible Union" from which no state can unilaterally secede. The case was filed when the Reconstruction-era government of Texas sued to reclaim U.S. bonds that had been illegally sold by the Confederate state government during the Civil War. In a 5-3 decision, Chief Justice Salmon P. Chase ruled that Texas had never legally left the Union, despite joining the Confederacy, because the Constitution does not provide a mechanism for secession. This decision reinforced the federal government's authority over state sovereignty, emphasizing that the Union is perpetual and cannot be dissolved by any state's actions alone. Texas v. White remains an essential case in constitutional law, particularly in discussions about the permanence of the Union and the limits of state power.
But there is always a “but.” More than a few legal scholars argue that constitutional amendments or negotiated agreements could, in theory, provide a pathway to peaceful secession. For example, Article 5 of the Constitution allows for amendments if two-thirds of both houses of Congress and three-fourths of state legislatures agree. While this process may be daunting, it is not entirely inconceivable, particularly if political polarization continues to deepen.
There are also practical challenges to secession that loom large. Prosperous states like California, New York, and Washington have economies deeply interwoven with those of Republican-led states, making disentanglement complex. They would also have to negotiate trade agreements and alliances with the remaining United States and other nations, a process fraught with uncertainty and potential conflict.
Despite these challenges, there are arguments in favor of secession as a response to systemic dysfunction and policy discord. The ideological chasm between Democratic and Republican states has led to gridlock on critical issues such as climate change, healthcare, and gun control.
Secession could enable Democratic-led states to pursue progressive policies unimpeded by federal constraints, fostering innovation and addressing the needs of their citizens more effectively.
Cascadia may also stand as a possibility for another formation. California could lead a coalition of like-minded states to form a progressive federation. This new entity could prioritize clean energy, universal healthcare, and social equity without interference from conservative federal policies. Furthermore, the act of secession itself might prompt a national reckoning, forcing the remaining United States to confront its divisions and seek meaningful reform. That may be the result of the campaign now underway.
On the other hand, a successful secession could serve as a model for resolving irreconcilable differences in other nations, demonstrating that peaceful disunion is possible. It might also create opportunities for innovative governance structures that better reflect the values and aspirations of distinct regional populations.
In any case, the perfect storm that Trump unleashed with full confidence may not be that perfect after all. It has already started to display growing frustration in Democratic-led states.
The next snapshot will be systemic polarization, governance paralysis, and deadlocks.
Agrandissement : Illustration 2
