Billet de blog 17 juillet 2011

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Egypt’s revolution is only just underway

Alexander Görlach, editor of German online magazine The European and who spent a year studying at AlAzhar University in Cairo, sketches a personal view on the shaky aftermath of Egypt's regime change.

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Ce blog est personnel, la rédaction n’est pas à l’origine de ses contenus.

Alexander Görlach, editor of German online magazine The European and who spent a year studying at AlAzhar University in Cairo, sketches a personal view on the shaky aftermath of Egypt's regime change.

Egypt has moved beyond the Arab spring. Cairo, Tahrir Square , the traffic moves slowly, the air is polluted, the roads are dirty.

This year, Ramadan coincides with the hottest time of the year, in August. Public life will come to a standstill. On TV, special Ramadan programs will be broadcast. When the sun sets, people gather for a feast and a stroll along the Nile with their families.

Many Egyptians marched against Mubarak. It is estimated that a million crowded into Tahrir Square and the surrounding areas to protest. January 25 proved to be a decisive event in Egypt's recent history, marking a before "Jan 25" and an after. Diplomats, journalists, spectators and - most importantly - the Egyptians themselves agree the date was a critical turning point for the revolution.

Among the unwanted consequences of that ‘revolution' in Cairo is that the traffic lights aren't working, there are hardly any traffic policemen and domestic safety has gone. A colleague who has been living in the country for a long time puts it like this: "The interior ministry has virtually disappeared." Words go round of night time shootings in some districts. People feel insecure. They talk how Mubarak and his people tried to destabilize the country by releasing inmates from prison.

And indeed the people of Egypt have reason to be suspicious of the old guard. Former ministers and cadres of the regime are in jail. They are accused of selling properties in corrupt deals, only to make a fortune when they re-sold the land or developed it. Now they have to pay the money back or remain in jail for decades. Egypt has moved quickly to put its former leaders on trial. Some still say that the revolution erupted because Mubarak hoarded many millions in offshore bank accounts while the average Egyptians didn't have enough to eat or a job.

But what comes next? In February, the military seized power. They want to hold elections and reform the constitution. They impose curfews and prohibitions on demonstrations. Is it doing this to ensure safety in the city or because it wants to prevent further protests?

Nobody knows who exactly the military are. Who pulls the strings? Who are the main actors? The generals don't want to govern, they don't want political power. They won't agree to a form of government that minimizes their influence, they won't bite the hand that feeds them. But the generals also will not add extra time to what is essentially a military dictatorship.

Safety and bread are two vital things that the military has thus far been unable to guarantee. No-one promises more than the Muslim Brotherhood. They have given themselves a modern image and moved into new headquarters in breezy New Cairo, away from the squeeze and squabble of the city center. They are making an effort to dispel doubts about their qualifications as a political party, and they say that they won't advocate any policies that harm the country or the economy.

Still, religion is playing a role. Questions about the influence of Islam form an important part of political discourse. The Muslim Brotherhood claims that influential powers want a country without Islam, absolutely secular, without Allah and mosques. Their proposals are far-reaching. Alcohol - without which many tourists would not come - should be served only in Hurghada and Sharm El Sheikh. Take the Egyptian museum out of the city and the tourists with it. Relegate it to a new building close to the airport to be able to prohibit the selling of alcohol in the city.

In a testament to the complexity of the situation, the influential Al-Azhar mosque, and especially its main imam and the highest Fatwa body, even felt the urge to react to the Brotherhood. They published a binding proclamation that in Islam religion and state can be separated. A preparation for a democratic society? Al-Azhar wasn't free either in Mubarak's Egypt. The Friday sermons were vetted by the state, important posts were occupied by loyalists of the regime. Maybe this influential Islamic institution wants to protect itself from becoming subjected to the whims of a new government?

Everybody is looking just now at Syria, where a president orders the security services to kill his own people. In comparison the Egyptians managed to get their revolution across quite peacefully. But the real work is still ahead. The Arab summer will be a busy one.

This opinion article is an edited version of the original.

Ce blog est personnel, la rédaction n’est pas à l’origine de ses contenus.