D'ici une semaine, des pourparlers devraient réunir l'Ukraine, la Russie, l'Union européenne et les États-Unis.
Dans une lettre adressée aux dirigeants européens le 10 avril, Moscou emploie un langage qu'il sait plus convaincant que le langage militaire : le langage économique.
Voici l'essentiel de la lettre de Vladimir Poutine, et sa traduction simplifiée. Malin, la crapule !
Ukraine’s economy in the past several months has been plummeting. Its industrial and construction sectors have also been declining sharply. Its budget deficit is mounting. The condition of its currency system is becoming more and more deplorable. The negative trade balance is accompanied by the flight of capital from the country. Ukraine’s economy is steadfastly heading towards a default, a halt in production and skyrocketing unemployment
L'Ukraine est au bord du défaut de paiement [Sous-entendu : la zone euro a déjà du mal, vous voulez que l'UE se mette en plus l'Ukraine sur les bras ?]
Russia and the EU member states are Ukraine’s major trading partners. Proceeding from this, at the Russia-EU Summit at the end of January, we came to an agreement with our European partners to hold consultations on the subject of developing Ukraine’s economy, bearing in mind the interests of Ukraine and our countries while forming integration alliances with Ukraine’s participation. However, all attempts on Russia’s part to begin real consultations failed to produce any results.
Instead of consultations, we hear appeals to lower contractual prices on Russian natural gas – prices which are allegedly of a “political” nature. One gets the impression that the European partners want to unilaterally blame Russia for the consequences of Ukraine’s economic crisis.
La Russie et l'UE sont les deux partenaires commerciaux principaux de l'Ukraine. On est donc censés causer pour s'entendre sur l'économie ukrainienne, mais ça n'avance pas. L'UE se contente de nous inciter à baisser les prix du gaz russe, qu'on nous accuse d'utiliser dans une logique politique. On a l'impression que l'UE veut nous rendre responsable de la crise économique ukrainienne !!
Right from day one of Ukraine’s existence as an independent state, Russia has supported the stability of the Ukrainian economy by supplying it with natural gas at cut-rate prices. In January 2009 […] a purchase-and-sale contract on supplying natural gas for the period of 2009-2019 was signed.
Nous, on fournit l'Ukraine en gaz à des prix réduits depuis 2009.
Russia granted Ukraine a whole string of unprecedented privileges and discounts on the price of natural gas […]. This applies to the discount stemming from the 2010 Kharkiv Agreement, which was provided as advance payment for the future lease payments for the presence of the (Russian) Black Sea Fleet after 2017. This also refers to discounts on the prices for natural gas purchased by Ukraine’s chemical companies. This also concerns the discount granted in December 2013 for the duration of three months due to the critical state of Ukraine’s economy. Beginning with 2009, the total sum of these discounts stands at 17 billion US dollars. To this, we should add another 18.4 billion US dollars incurred by the Ukrainian side as a minimal take-or-pay fine.
In this manner, during the past four years, Russia has been subsidizing Ukraine’s economy by offering slashed natural gas prices worth 35.4 billion US dollars. In addition, in December 2013, Russia granted Ukraine a loan of 3 billion US dollars
Les réductions qu'on a accordées à l'Ukraine pour le prix du gaz s'élèvent depuis 2009 à 17 milliards de $, auxquelles il faut ajouter les 18,4 milliards de $ qu'aurait dû en principe payer l'Ukraine pour le gaz dont elle n'a pas pris livraison.
On a donc subventionné l'Ukraine de 35,4 miliards de $ ces 4 dernières années, et en plus on lui a accordé un prêt de 3 milliards de $ en décembre 2013.
What about the European partners? Instead of offering Ukraine real support, there is talk about a declaration of intent. There are only promises that are not backed by any real actions. The European Union is using Ukraine’s economy as a source of raw foodstuffs, metal and mineral resources, and at the same time, as a market for selling its highly-processed ready-made commodities (machine engineering and chemicals), thereby creating a deficit in Ukraine’s trade balance amounting to more than 10 billion US dollars. This comes to almost two-thirds of Ukraine’s overall deficit for 2013.
Pendant ce temps, l'UE n'a fait que des déclarations d'intention. En fait, elle achète des matières premières à l'Ukraine et lui vend des produits issus de la haute technologie. Résultats : le déficit de la balance commerciale de l'Ukraine est de plus 10 milliards de dollars, soit près des deux tiers de son déficit global pour 2013.
To a large extent, the crisis in Ukraine’s economy has been precipitated by the unbalanced trade with the EU member states, and this, in turn has had a sharply negative impact on Ukraine’s fulfillment of its contractual obligations to pay for deliveries of natural gas supplied by Russia. Gazprom neither has intentions except for those stipulated in the 2009 contract nor plans to set any additional conditions. This also concerns the contractual price for natural gas, which is calculated in strict accordance with the agreed formula. However, Russia cannot and should not unilaterally bear the burden of supporting Ukraine’s economy by way of providing discounts and forgiving debts, and in fact, using these subsidies to cover Ukraine’s deficit in its trade with the EU member states.
Donc, c'est l'UE qui a plombé l'économie de l'Ukraine, laquelle du coup ne peut plus assurer le paiement du gaz que lui fournit la Russie. C'est quand même pas à nous, la Russie, d'assumer, par nos tarifs préférentiels et nos exonérations de dette, le déficit de la balance commerciale entre l'Ukraine et l'UE !?!
The debt of NAK Naftogaz Ukraine for delivered gas has been growing monthly this year. In November-December 2013 this debt stood at 1.451,5 billion US dollars; in February 2014 it increased by a further 260.3 million and in March by another 526.1 million US dollars. Here I would like to draw your attention to the fact that in March there was still a discount price applied, i.e., 268.5 US dollars per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. And even at that price, Ukraine did not pay a single dollar.
Fin 2013, l'Ukraine devait 1,45 milliard de $ à la Russie pour le gaz. Et 260 millions de $ en plus en février 204, et 526 millions de $ en plus en mars. Et ceci en tenant compte du prix réduit dont elle bénéficiait !
In such conditions, in accordance with Articles 5.15, 5.8 and 5.3 of the contract, Gazprom is compelled to switch over to advance payment for gas delivery, and in the event of further violation of the conditions of payment, will completely or partially cease gas deliveries. In other words, only the volume of natural gas will be delivered to Ukraine as was paid for one month in advance of delivery.
Donc Gazprom [le fournisseur russe de gaz] devrait maintenant en principe exiger de l'Ukraine un paiement d'avance.
Undoubtedly, this is an extreme measure. We fully realize that this increases the risk of siphoning off natural gas passing through Ukraine’s territory and heading to European consumers. We also realize that this may make it difficult for Ukraine to accumulate sufficient gas reserves for use in the autumn and winter period. In order to guarantee uninterrupted transit, it will be necessary, in the nearest future, to supply 11.5 billion cubic meters of gas that will be pumped into Ukraine’s underground storage facilities, and this will require a payment of about 5 billion US dollars.
On voudrait pas en arriver là , hein ! On sait bien que du coup l'Ukraine détournerait à son profit le gaz qui vous est destiné, mes pauvres amis européens ! [note : 80% du gaz russe livré à l'UE transite par l'Ukraine. Lors de la crise de 2008-2009, celle-ci avait déjà été accusé par Gazprom de détourner le gaz destiné à l'UE pour compenser des coupures d'approvisionnement déjà dûs à des défauts de paiement].
However, the fact that our European partners have unilaterally withdrawn from the concerted efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, and even from holding consultations with the Russian side, leaves Russia no alternative.
D'un autre côté, en refusant de causer, vous nous laissez pas le choix !
There can be only one way out of the situation that has developed. We believe it is vital to hold, without delay, consultations at the level of ministers of economics, finances and energy in order to work out concerted actions to stabilize Ukraine’s economy and to ensure delivery and transit of Russian natural gas in accordance with the terms and conditions set down in the contract. We must lose no time in beginning to coordinate concrete steps. It is towards this end that we appeal to our European partners.
It goes without saying that Russia is prepared to participate in the effort to stabilize and restore Ukraine’s economy. However, not in a unilateral way, but on equal conditions with our European partners. It is also essential to take into account the actual investments, contributions and expenditures that Russia has shouldered by itself alone for such a long time in supporting Ukraine. As we see it, only such an approach would be fair and balanced, and only such an approach can lead to success;
Nous on est prêt à dialoguer, mais faut tenir compte de tout ce qu'on a fait pour l'Ukraine, hein ! Ah, et n'oubliez pas d'inviter vos ministres de l'économie, des finances, et de l'énergie, ça pourrait les intéresser…